Where's the lame new Iraqi flag?
Hey, what happened to that lame new blue Israeli-looking flag that the CPA cooked up for Iraq? At the hand-off ceremony they had the old flag.
View ArticleMeta-analysis of all state polls
Dear fellow Kos readers, I am undertaking a meta-analysis of state polling data to calculate a current snapshot of the probable range of election outcomes. Like most of you, I have a strong bias about...
View ArticleState poll analysis: Kerry win 90% likely, 291 EV
Dear Kossacks, Here is an update of a calculation I first posted on this site two weeks ago. The permanent link is here and includes all the details. It's a snapshot of many recent state polls taken...
View ArticleMeta-analysis of state polls: K278, B260
Dear Kossacks, Here is an updated version of my meta-analysis of state polls. It's a calculation that takes advantage of all the state polls we read in small dribbles, reduced to a single confidence...
View ArticleStatistical evidence of Gallup bias
A close statistical look at Gallup's results over time proves clearly that party ID can fully account for the variation in their results.
View ArticleStatistical problems with weighting: comparing Gallup and Rasmussen
I have been looking at the party-ID numbers in the Gallup data. I find evidence that party ID is not fixed over time. Here is the argument.
View ArticleFlorida: mismatch between pre-election polls and outcome
The following entry replicates information posted at my election site, election.princeton.edu. The main point is that pre-election polls match what happened in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but not Florida.
View ArticleBiden: "We represent the majority of the American people"
Today on C-SPAN, Senator Joe Biden is making/has just made a speech on the proposed rule change on filibusters of judicial nominations - the "nuclear option." He made an interesting statement, that "we...
View ArticleThe neuroscience of false beliefs
In today's New York Times, I have an editorial on the brain science of why people form false beliefs, co-written with my co-author, Sandra Aamodt. It's timely because of the many rumors that have...
View ArticleSouthpaw presidents and Barack Obama's way with words (w/poll)
In today's Washington Post we have a piece on left-handed presidents. The next president will be left-handed, since Barack Obama and John McCain are both southpaws. Since 1945, 5 of 12 presidents have...
View ArticleThe Brain Who Mistook a Joke for a Fact
This diary's title is a tribute to neurologist Oliver Sacks, whose book The Man Who Mistook His Wife For A Hat chronicles ways in which brain damage can affect our perceptions in odd ways. But our...
View ArticleThe Meta-Analysis Of State Polls is back! (w/poll)
Long-time readers may recall when I unveiled the first Meta-Analysis of State Polls during the 2004 campaign. It was one of the first analyses of its kind. The response was overwhelming. The act of...
View ArticleA flaw in fivethirtyeight (and a meta-analytic repair)
This post continues my discussion of how to meta-analyze state polls. My most recent post was on Saturday morning. Today I’d like to focus on a particular strength of meta-analysis, its use as a...
View ArticleA probabilistic view of the 50-state strategy
A recent story tells about McCain's focused ad spending in battleground states, and Obama's broader spending pattern. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more...
View ArticleStopping false beliefs - lessons for journalists from brain science
In my day job I'm a neuroscientist. Usually this does not intersect with politics, but today's an exception.In June, my book co-author Sandra Aamodt and I wrote for the New York Times about how our...
View ArticleThe disappearing Bradley effect
Over at the Princeton Election Consortium I have been concerned with factors that may systematically bias polls. Accuracy is an essential component of using national polls to gauge where national...
View ArticleThe statistics of Iran 2009: Part 1, pre-election polls
By now hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data. Here's part 1 of my analysis, which is also cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium.Three general...
View ArticleThe statistics of Iran 2009: Part 1, pre-election polls
By now hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data. Here's part 1 of my analysis, which is also cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium.Three general...
View ArticleBirther Orly Taitz gets her court date...sort of
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium)Back on the false-belief beat...sort of.I've previously written about false belief formation from the standpoint of neuroscience. One current...
View ArticleA nonpartisan solution to the Rasmussen issue
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium)Many readers of this site know that pollsters vary in their methods. However, existing solutions, such as correcting for bias, have attracted...
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